Change is a Verb 

The Arctic’s changing climate shows us that prudence and predictability are allies in future planning.

The planet has always changed. Over 4.5 billion years, Earth has never stood still: climates shift, coastlines move, species come and go, and nothing truly “returns.” Change is not a one-off; it is a permanent state – a verb. 

What is different today is the scale of the human footprint. Humankind has become a geophysical force, accelerating change in the climate system and in ecosystems. The larger the perturbation, the larger the response – and the less predictable the outcome. Predictability is not a luxury. It is what allows societies to plan, invest, cooperate, and create a basic feeling of security for one another. That is why prudence matters: keeping our perturbation as low as possible is, at its core, practical risk management. 

The Arctic is often described as warming several times faster than the global average. Recent analyses suggest the region has warmed around four times faster than the planet as a whole since the late 1970s. In the high north, this is not abstract. Svalbard sits close to where warm Atlantic water meets the ice edge. Because most excess heat is stored in the ocean, shifts in ocean heat transport can rapidly change sea-ice conditions, which in turn alters heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere.

Recent analyses suggest the Arctic has warmed around four times faster than the planet as a whole since the late 1970s.

I have seen this firsthand. Fjords that once froze reliably now often remain open through winter. Winters have warmed far more than summers. Globally, we debate 1.5°C, framed in the Paris Agreement as a guardrail against “dangerous” change. On Svalbard, however, winter warming has been measured in many degrees: assessments report roughly ~7°C winter warming since the early 1970s, and some recent reporting describes winter temperature increases approaching 10°C in parts of the archipelago over recent decades.

This is the context for the elevated manganese levels recently detected in Longyearbyen’s drinking water. It is a vivid example of how rapid change produces surprises. We have warned for decades about climate impacts on weather, biodiversity, economies, and health – but few people predicted that a trace metal would become a household concern, with measured values at times far above recommended limits and advice issued to avoid long-term consumption. The manganese story is not “just” a technical issue: it is climate change arriving through pipes, treatment plants, catchments, and daily routines.

Nature can still surprise us in the other direction, too. Just this week, a long-term study led by the Norwegian Polar Institute reported that polar bears around Svalbard have maintained – or even improved – body condition over the last few decades, despite dramatic sea-ice loss. It is cautiously encouraging. But time scales are tricky. Short-term resilience can coexist with long-term risk, and “good news” can be temporary in a system still being pushed.

Short-term resilience can coexist with long-term risk, and “good news” can be temporary in a system still being pushed.

The long view helps. Willem Barentsz reached these waters in 1596 – about 430 years ago – and named Vogelhoek (“bird corner” or “bird nook”) on Prins Karls Forland for its dense bird life. It remains an exquisite bird cliff. Yet the centuries that followed also brought industrial whaling that collapsed local bowhead whale stocks. Choices made hundreds of years ago shaped what we see today.

So, what will people see 430 years from now? The Arctic matters not only because it is unique, but because it is woven into the planet’s climate engine. The more we perturb it, the less predictable the future becomes – for Svalbard, for the wider Arctic, and for societies everywhere trying to plan and adapt. The manganese lesson belongs in that frame. Svalbard is a forewarning of what rapid, human-driven change looks like when it reaches into the infrastructure of daily life. 

Change is permanent. Losing control is not inevitable. Prudence is simply the most realistic form of optimism we have.